Predicting the result is probably too far out as all the candidates for each Division have yet to be announced. I would predict a Conservative win. This is a close call and is very close to the Conservatives being the largest party with the current status quo.
The devil will be in the detail. Due to a reorganisation the number of seats are dropping from 69 to 61.
Why the Conservatives lost in 2013?
This was a shock to the Conservatives. Not to me. The Conservative vote had been falling year after year. The main insurgent party was UKIP. The secondary insurgents were the Independents. Labour did well against the Liberal Democrats in Cambridge but not against the Conservatives. UKIP and Independents denied the Conservatives a majority. Labour simply didn't.
Many of the seats UKIP gained were two seats with the seats split with the Conservatives. Many of these seats have gone and this helps the Conservatives.
Why should the Conservatives win in 2017?
With 61 seats up for grabs this means 31 seats needed for a majority.
Cambridge looses 2 seats 14 to 12
East Cambs looses 1 seat 9 to 8
Fenlands looses 2 seats 11 to 9
South Cambs looses 1 seat 16 to 15
Huntingdonshire looses 2 seats 19 to 17
The loss of seats hurts the opposition rather than the Conservatives. UKIP, Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Independents get hit. Therefore without the campaign even starting the Conservatives should win. This election is for the Conservatives to lose rather than win.
Here is my first prediction.
Conservatives 32
Liberal Democrats 16
Labour 7
UKIP 3
Independents 3
UKIP will get hammered in the north of the county. The Liberal Democrats could do well and Labour could do well in Cambridge City rather than anywhere else. Independents should do well in St Neots.
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